A Stranger Knocks on the Door
As I lay there
In the warm embrace of my veil
The air suddenly turns frigid
Chills tingle up my spine
I hear a knock on the door
So soft, almost like a chime
So methodical, almost like the
Sands of Time
The veil of Ignorance
Is ripped to shreds
And what is left
Is something awkward?
For who is the visitor
A hooded, shrouded figure
That offers the sweet temptation of Finality
A sense of panic
Courses through my entire body
As I shudder and wake up drenched in fear
What is the meaning of this?
I run away
Grasping at the tattered remains of the veil
But how long can I flee?
And where is the haven that I seek?
Three strands of musings intertwined as one,
Wonder, contemplate and ruminate on the Purpose of Life,
Wealth, journey into the world of Value Investing and Frugality,
Wisdom, strive for Personal Development and attainment of Enlightenment,
Welcome to the world of Wonder, Wealth & Wisdom!
Saturday, September 26, 2009
A Stranger Knocks on the Door
Friday, July 3, 2009
For instance, look at the shares of Genting Berhad below. The share price has almost doubled within the span of three months from March to June 2009 i.e. RM3 per share to RM6 per share.
However, when one takes a long hard look at the financial results, you will find that there’s really nothing optimistic about Genting that can justify the doubling of its’ share price. In fact, the results are quite disappointing. Why then has the price gone up?
Should you have bought Genting’s shares in March 2009? You would have made almost a 100% gain within three short months.
As an investor, I feel that there is nothing more dangerous than venturing from intelligent speculation to outright gambling.
So, what’s the difference? Just stop and ask yourself this one critical question:
Are there any good reasons to buy the shares in Genting at RM3 three months ago?
If there is none, you are merely gambling away in the Bursa Casino. Yes, in hindsight the price has gone up. But don’t forget, the price of Genting shares could have gone down significantly as well.
If yes, take a long hard look at your reasons. Are they based on good and fundamental reasons? Even if you hear rumors that the company will secure a large project, consider the reliability of the information first. More importantly, take a long hard look at the share price of the company for the last few days. Somebody might have already purchased the shares in that counter and are looking to sell it to some naïve investors. Don’t be one of them!
A more reasonable approach is to use look at the PE ratio or dividend yield of these companies. If the PE ratio is less than 10x or dividend yield is 8% or more, it may be a good investment. Further, do your own homework and assess the liquidity and gearing of such companies before investing in them.
Try not to buy shares of companies just because its’ prices are going up. And don’t sell shares you hold, just because the prices are going down. Following the crowd will get you nowhere except losing your hard earned money. Make sure you have good solid reasons for investing in the first place and equally good reasons before selling the shares that you own.
Monday, June 15, 2009
In this series of posts, I will be looking at some of the more incredible gyrations of stocks in Bursa Malaysia. For want of a better word, let’s call them ‘Stupendous Stocks’ named after a certain superhero.
Surely, the most stupendous stock today is none other than Malaysian Airline System Berhad (MAS), stock ticker: 3786. On 12 June 2009, MAS finally announced its’ quarter one results for 2009 which was delayed due to its’ early implementation of FRS139: Financial Instruments, Recognition and Measurement. FRS139 is an incredible complex standard which aims to do a simple thing: i.e. reflect the gains/loss in investments by benchmarking them against market prices (i.e. marked-to-market accounting).
And the impact of this fantastic piece of accounting:
1. Quarter 1, 2009: Derivative loss of RM557mil
2. 2008 and prior: Derivative(?) loss of RM3,952mil
The total impact of FRS139 is a net loss in derivatives of approximately RM4.5 BILLION. Is this a lot of money? Hmmm…. Let’s look at the shareholders equity, shall we? Ooops, is there any shareholders’ equity left? Total equity is a NEGATIVE of RM446 million.
Granted, these losses are unrealized losses. It’s the same as me saying that just because I bought Transmile stocks at RM10 in 2006, I don’t have any losses since I haven’t sold any. Even though its’ only worth RM1.46 today, it doesn’t mean it won’t go up to RM10 in the future, right? Right on… it must be this sort of thinking that explains why the price of MAS has hardly moved today. Perhaps RM4.5 BILLION LOSSES is just insignificant compared to the MAS’s cash balances of just over RM2.9 BILLION? For those of you who can figure this out, I salute you!
For the others, welcome to the wonderful world of investing in our ‘Baffling Bursa’!
Friday, June 12, 2009
Once … long past
I believed in the world
Accepted life without questions
Free to think
Free to ponder
Free to question
Like a whirlpool
Some place faith
I will not
Only the sinister
Light of the cold, harsh truth
Why must I end?
If so, why do I exist?
Why did I begin?
If so, why am I unaware?
Monday, June 1, 2009
Reflections on the Winter of My Soul
In the silence of the Night
I sit here alone
And I ponder
What is clearly Black or White …
Has turned into shades of Grey
What is evidently Right or Wrong …
Has become mired in lies
When Trust is betrayed
It pains one’s Soul
More than words can say
More than the heart can bear
A shadow has fallen
Across the arid landscape
The journey must end
I know naught what the future holds
Will I one day too, be forsaken, forgotten and forlorn?
Monday, February 16, 2009
[Click on the chart to enlarge it]
Long term Capital Appreciation
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth vis-à-vis Capital Appreciation
Market Capitalization as a % of GDP
At the end of 2007 as indicated at Point B, the market capitalization in Bursa Malaysia again exceeded our GDP by RM465 billion. The market capitalization as a % of GDP ratio of 1.73x indicates that stocks were possibly overvalued, although on less excessive scale as compared to 1996.
Where are we now?
Thursday, February 12, 2009
The above slide illustrates a very CRUCIAL aspect about investing in the stock market. When one begins to invest in the stock market, the most illusory aspect about it all is the relative sense of calm. Stock prices don't move up or down much most of the times. Instead there are long periods of boredom where it increments up and down in minute amounts. Where is the excitement and roller coaster ride I signed up for?
As Jason Zweig points out here,
Nearly all of us try forecasting the market as if each of the past returns of every year in history had been written on a separate slip of paper and tossed into a hat. Before we reach into the hat, we imagine which return we are most likely to pluck out. Because the long-term average annual gain is about 10%, we "anchor" on that number, then adjust it up or down a bit for our own bullishness or bearishness.
But the future isn't a hat full of little shredded pieces of the past. It is, instead, a whirlpool of uncertainty populated by what the trader and philosopher Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls "black swans" -- events that are hugely important, rare and unpredictable, and explicable only after the fact.
History shows that the vast majority of the time, the stock market does next to nothing. Then, when no one expects it, the market delivers a giant gain or loss -- and promptly lapses back into its usual stupor. Javier Estrada, a finance professor at IESE Business School in Barcelona, Spain, has studied the daily returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average back to 1900. I asked him to extend his research through the end of 2008. Prof. Estrada found that if you took away the 10 best days, two-thirds of the cumulative gains produced by the Dow over the past 109 years would disappear. Conversely, had you sidestepped the market's 10 worst days, you would have tripled the actual return of the Dow.
"Although we could make a bundle of money if we could accurately predict those good and bad days," says Prof. Estrada, "the sad truth is that we're very, very unlikely to do that." The moments that made all the difference were just 0.03% of history: 10 days out of 29,694.
There may be those who are prescient with an ability to gauge exactly when those 10 days are. For the rest of us mortals, it would be better to understand the intrinsic value good companies we are interested in. Wait for those 10 days to appear and have your cash ready to swoop in on them when Mr. Market is an extremely suicidal mood.
Sunday, February 8, 2009
From a global perspective, nothing major has happened in the physical realm that we live in. There were no major wars, earthquakes, tsunamis or any form of massive destruction of our assets, people or resources. I feel that I’m correct to say that if the entire planet’s resources were valued monetarily, there would be no significant changes from 2007 vis-à-vis 2008.
From a financial perspective, there has been a major seismic shift originating from the US. Major financial institutions have either collapsed or required government bailouts. These include branded names such as Citibank, AIG and Lehman Brothers. Additional bailout packages are being debated and approved as we speak, to help jumpstart the US economy. The effects of this seismic shift in the US have begun to reach the shores of other countries causing contraction in the major economies of other countries including Europe, Asia, China and Japan.
The Zero Sum Game
One of the reasons why I have always abstained from gambling is because it is purely a zero sum game. If you win, someone else loses. There’s just a transfer of wealth since nothing of value is being created. Let’s compare this with the current crisis. Is there something not quite right here?
The Cake Analogy?
A simple analogy should suffice here. Assume that the global resources of the earth are represented by a cake. Now instead of cutting this cake and handing a slice of this to everybody equally, everybody is given coupons as a claim over the cake. Assume the global population of the world consists of 100 people.
Ever person has a 1/100 coupon. Let’s denominate these 1/100 cake coupons as 1 cake dollar. So, the entire global resources are worth 100 Cake Dollars. Every person has a Cake Dollar and his happy with this arrangement. All these Cake Dollars are being held with ABC Bank Inc. One fine day, ABC Bank Inc says that 60 Cake Dollars have gone missing. Where has it gone? ABC Bank Inc says that’s not important, what’s more important is that it needs all the existing citizens to subsidize the losses. So, it asks the government to print an additional 60 Cake Dollars to make up for the shortfall. Each Cake Dollar is worth 60% less due to inflation. In other words, each Cake Dollar allows the citizens to claim 0.4/100 of the world resources.
Wait a minute here! Let’s see… So 100 persons now have 100 Cake Dollars. The total of these 100 Cake Dollars has a stake of 40% over the world resources due to inflation. Heck, who’s swindled off the remaining 60% of the global resources of the world?
Well, perhaps if you look hard enough, it’s likely that the original 60 Cake Dollars couldn’t just have disappeared, could it? Money just doesn’t disappear into thin air. Most likely, the missing 60 Cake Dollars were cashed out by the winner and he’s just taken the 60% slice of the entire cake from the table. And his gain is at whose expense? It’s the people still holding the Cake Dollars being asked to subsidize for the losses of ABC Bank Inc that’s left picking up the pieces.
How Could the Bank Lose?
As an analogy, assume ABC Bank Inc betted 60 Cake Dollars against *someone* that Roger Federer would win the Australian Open in 2009. ABC Bank Inc lost.
Normally, we would just let this bank fail. You made a bad call, you pay the price. Unfortunately, all the Cake Dollars are held with this bank. If it fails, there would be a run on the bank and everyone would start realizing their Cake Dollars are worthless. So, the 99 persons in the world have to absorb the 60% losses by ABC Bank Inc to avoid starting a world wide panic and riots.
In Real Life
The 2009 Australian Open bet is akin to the gambles taken by the financial institutions in CDOs, CMOs, CDS and the like. How could the derivatives arm of these major investment banks and financial institutions earn returns in excess of 20 or 30% per annum? Only if you play the zero sum game! And when you win big, you can also expect to lose big sometimes. And the banks have lost BIG against someone. The fact they need so much money is that they’ve used the depositor’s money to pay of their bad bets. Now, they don’t have any money left to pay the depositors money they were supposed to hold on trust for us.
As we are talking about huge losses of trillions of USD, *someone* must have made a hefty gain at the expense of the banks and tax payers. In addition, since everyone is feeling depressed, prices of commodities (i.e. real resources) are under priced. This *someone* is going to have a bonanza time taking over commodities and companies at fire sale prices.
Anyone has any idea, who this *someone* is?
Thursday, January 1, 2009
- Money Management
- Fundamentals of Investing
- Basics of Investing
- Analysis of Financial Statements
- Seven Deadly Sins of Investing
- Buddhist Economics
- ► June (3)
- ► February (3)
Wonder, Wealth & Wisdom by Avatar is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 2.5 Malaysia License.
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